Inherent Bias

The Atlantic has an amazing story about the entrenched biases that affect peoples’ perceptions of the world, and how they are affected by political allegiance. Aptly titled “It’s Not About the Economy,” author Alana Semuels uses the northern Indiana town of Elkhart to illustrate how in this post-truth era, political tribalism affects our views more than economic realities:

Elkhart’s unemployment rate, which had reached a high of 22 percent in March of 2009, is now at 3.9 percent. Hiring signs dot the doors of the Wal-Mart, the McDonald’s, and the Long John Silver’s. The RV industry makes 65 percent of its vehicles in Elkhart, and the industry is producing a record number of vehicles, which is creating a lot of jobs in this frosty town in northern Indiana.

Despite this good economic and jobs news, Elkhart voters don’t credit President Obama or the Democrats. Not only do they think the economy improved in spite of, not because of, Obama, they also blame Obama for things he didn’t do, or don’t give him credit for things that he did. It basically boils down to this: people in Elkhart, IN don’t like Democrats, period, and nothing will change that:

These biases are only increasing as the country becomes increasingly polarized. As people become increasingly loyal to their parties, they are unlikely to give leaders from the other party credit for much of anything positive. Both sides are instead more likely to believe narratives that suggest that the other party has only made things worse.

“People’s predispositions affect their factual beliefs about the world,” said Brendan Nyhan, a professor of government at Dartmouth College who has researched why people believe what they do about politics. “What we want to be true influences what we believe to be true.”

Indeed, as the economy began improving, Elkhart voters grew less likely to support Democratic candidates for president. Obama won 44 percent of the vote in Elkhart County in 2008, 36 percent in 2012, and Clinton received just 31 percent in 2016.

Thanks, hate radio and Fox News! Really, this has to be the Fox Effect, more than anything. (And yes, it works the other way, too. Democrats generally won’t credit Republicans with doing anything right, either. Although we do embrace conservative policies, and hullo, who ever thought Democrats would fight to the death to support a Republican healthcare plan?)

Check out these reasons why people in Elkhart don’t like President Obama:

Ed Neufeldt, whose daughter and two son-in-laws now work in the RV industry after losing their jobs in it during the recession, told me he thought Obama was responsible for improving the economy in Elkhart, but that he still didn’t like the president because of his stance on abortion.

Okay, I can buy that. I don’t agree with it, but at least it’s an actual policy disagreement. For the record, Ed Neufelt was the only person Semuels spoke with who credited Obama with improving the economy. But he found another reason not to like him. Funny how that works.

And then there’s this:

Brandon Stanley owns a bar in Elkhart. He says he’s optimistic that the economy is improving now that Republicans have regained power, but emphasizes that there are still a host of economic problems that haven’t been solved in Elkhart. As for the shrinking unemployment rate in Elkhart, “they changed how they report unemployment numbers,” he told me, so they’re not believable.

Ah, the “damn lies” contingent. When the facts are in opposition to your preconceived political bias, the facts must be wrong. For the record, I remember a version of this among liberals during the Bush years: yes, unemployment numbers were at a certain rate, the popular talking point went, but it didn’t reflect those who had “given up looking for a job.” I’m quite certain I repeated that line myself, and it may or may not have been true at the time. I now hear that same line repeated by Republicans in regards to current unemployment numbers. And thanks to the internet, it’s really easy to find links bolstering whatever argument you want to make.

Now let’s meet another Elkhart resident with some really good reasons for hating Obama:

Andi Ermes, 39, offered a number of reasons for disliking Obama. She said Obama didn’t attend the Army-Navy football game, even though other presidents had. Obama has actually attended more Army-Navy games than George H.W. Bush. She said that he had taken too many vacations. He has taken fewer vacation days than George W. Bush. She also said that he refused to wear a flag pin on his lapel. While it is true that Obama did not wear a flag on his lapel at points during the 2007 campaign, it was back on his suit by 2008. Ermes told me the news sources she consumes most are Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, and a local conservative radio show hosted by Casey Hendrickson.

What did I say about hate radio and Fox News? This is particularly stupid because, really, who gives a shit if someone wears a flag pin or not? And it just goes to show, there’s nothing a Democrat can do to earn the votes of the brainwashed. Just as there was literally nothing Donald Trump could do that would lose the allegiance of these same brainwashed folks. As long as you have that “R” behind your name and spout the same stupid approved points, you are golden with these folks.

I’m not sure what the solution to this is. It all seems part of a larger social and demographic unraveling. I also wonder how uniquely American this is. Other countries have the internet, fake news, partisan news media and biased columnists. Has the poison of hyperpartisanship affected Canada, Australia and the UK? Do people blindly not accept facts that challenge their preconceived worldviews in France and India and China?

If living in a cocoon of ignorance is more palatable than moving one’s biases one inch to the right or left, we are all truly doomed.


Filed under 2016 Election, 2016 Presidential Election, economy, unemployment

6 responses to “Inherent Bias

  1. Kathleen

    Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and your family, Ms Beale. Thank you for your humorous, keepin’ it real, cogent commentary this year! I really appreciate it.

  2. themadkansan

    Most other nations have strong national education systems that actually TEACH their citizens the things they need to be, well… Citizens. We’ve watched the Rich and the Right methodically ablate and cripple our public school system, along with the explosion of HateRadio and conservative horse-shit TV programming to reinforce the deficiencies our young people leave school with, to the point where so many people under 30 (hell, even under 40) are totally apathetic, if not hostile to, the concept of responsible self-government.

    Now, the goal of their 40-year campaign of asymmetric domestic political warfare is nearly achieved – to elect a pliable money-soaked troglodyte to the Oval Office in order to codify in law and rule all the things they’ve sought.

    This is not going to end well for =any= of us, not even the people making out like bandits at the very tippy-top of the money-heap, but they couldn’t give less of a fuck so long as they get the plump, juicy morsels rendered up by breaking this country into splinters.

    The Soapbox has been bought out,
    The Ballot Box has been stuffed,
    The Jury Box has been rigged, and more and more,
    The Ammo Box seems to be the only thing left to us…


  3. Democommie

    For those who have not previously read it, “The Marching Morons” seems to have been more accurate than one might wish.

  4. K

    remember that during the 20’s and 30’s Indiana hd the largest KKK membership north of the old traitor states. That sort of generational bigotry and ignorance only goes underground it never disappears.
    just to show how long Indiana insisted on remaining a backward and dishonest state up to the 70’s, that I know of they may still be in effect, no liquor could be bought, or sold, on sunday’s. they also delayed completeing their portion of the old TriState freeway ( ILL, In, Michigan) for years after taking federal money so as to force people coming back to Chicago from michigan on Sundays after a weekend to go through a podunk town full of crooked cops until they could get on the Indiana TOLL road ( Tri State was freeway) it was only after the Feds started moving on reclaiming the funds after a decade or so of delay that In. decided that maybe living up to an agreement might be in their best interests.
    as for educational system well lets just say if you included basketball there was one if you don’t include it well Lincolns one room school house ws the model for them.

    • You still can’t buy wine or liquor in Tennessee on Sundays, and only recently could you buy beer (I think pro sports had something to with that: people going to Titans games want their beer!). And only this year could you buy wine in a grocery store (but not on Sundays!). Our liquor laws are incredibly bizarre but the moral argument about evul likker is really just a smokescreen for laws that protect alcohol distributors.

  5. democommie

    All states, afaia, have laws that protect big busineess monopolies or state monopolies when it comes to liqour, tobacco and, SOOON, the devil weed.